| NIM | C1G021001 |
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| Namamhs | LIE CHANTILLY PURWADI |
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| Judul Artikel | THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY VARIABLES, IMPORT AND WORLD OIL PRICE ON INFLATION IN INDONESIA 2019-2024
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| Abstrak (Bhs. Indonesia) | This study analyzes the effect of bank indonesia (bi) interest rates, exchange rates, money supply (m2), imports, and world oil prices on inflation in indonesia for the period 2019–2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) method. This period was chosen because it covers pre-pandemic conditions, the covid-19 shock, and economic recovery. Monthly data were obtained from official sources such as bank indonesia, the central statistics agency, and the ministry of trade. The ardl model was used to estimate the short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The results show that in the long term, bi interest rates, money supply, and world oil prices have a significant positive effect on inflation, while exchange rate and imports have a significant negative effect. The @trend component indicates an average monthly decline in inflation of 0.085%. These findings suggest the need for interest rate management, control of the money supply, import policies to maintain domestic supply, and a national energy strategy to anticipate volatility in global oil prices. |
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| Abtrak (Bhs. Inggris) | This study analyzes the effect of bank indonesia (bi) interest rates, exchange rates, money supply (m2), imports, and world oil prices on inflation in indonesia for the period 2019–2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) method. This period was chosen because it covers pre-pandemic conditions, the covid-19 shock, and economic recovery. Monthly data were obtained from official sources such as bank indonesia, the central statistics agency, and the ministry of trade. The ardl model was used to estimate the short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The results show that in the long term, bi interest rates, money supply, and world oil prices have a significant positive effect on inflation, while exchange rate and imports have a significant negative effect. The @trend component indicates an average monthly decline in inflation of 0.085%. These findings suggest the need for interest rate management, control of the money supply, import policies to maintain domestic supply, and a national energy strategy to anticipate volatility in global oil prices. |
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| Kata kunci | Inflation, BI Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Import, World Oil Price, Autoregressive Distributed Lag. |
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| Pembimbing 1 | Prof. Dr. Arintoko, S.E.,M.Si. |
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| Pembimbing 2 | |
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| Pembimbing 3 | |
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| Tahun | 2025 |
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| Jumlah Halaman | 21 |
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| Tgl. Entri | 2025-09-12 12:18:11.820241 |
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