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Abstrak (Bhs. Indonesia)

Gandum adalah salah satu makanan yang banyak dikonsumsi oleh masyarakat Indonesia. Akan tetapi, permintaan tersebut belum bisa dicukupi oleh produksi dalam negeri sehingga dilakukan impor. Kedudukan gandum di Indonesia yang cukup penting menyebabkan impor gandum belum bisa dihentikan. Oleh sebab itu, penelitian ini dilakukan untuk 1) menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor gandum di Indonesia dan 2) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan impor gandum di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel dari sepuluh negara pengekspor utama gandum Indonesia dari tahun 2003 hingga 2022 yang diolah dan dianalisis menggunakan analisis deksriptif statistik serta analisis Gravity Model pendekatan Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa perkembangan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volume impor gandum berfluktuasi dari tahun ke tahun. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan impor gandum di Indonesia secara signifikan, yaitu GDP per kapita negara eksportir, jarak ekonomi, produksi gandum di negara pengekspor, konsumsi domestik Indonesia, harga gandum internasional, dan suhu rata-rata negara eksportir.  Sementara, variabel yang tidak berpengaruh terhadap volume impor gandum Indonesia, yaitu GDP per kapita Indonesia, nilai tukar riil rupiah terhadap dolar, dan curah hujan rata-rata di negara eksportir.

Abtrak (Bhs. Inggris)

Wheat is one of the most widely consumed products in Indonesia. Due to high 
demand from households, the food industry, and the feed industry, domestic wheat 
production was insufficient, making imports necessary. In recent years, wheat 
import activities have faced challenges such as limited stocks due to climate change 
in grain-producing countries and rising global wheat prices. Despite these 
difficulties, the critical importance of wheat in Indonesia meant that imports could 
not be halted unless the country achieved self-sufficiency in wheat production. This 
study aimed to 1) identify the factors influencing wheat imports in Indonesia and 2) 
analyze the demand for wheat imports.
The commodities analyzed were wheat grains and meslin, classified under HS 
code 1001. The study examined various variables, including the volume of 
Indonesian wheat imports, GDP per capita of Indonesia, GDP per capita of 
exporting countries, economic distance, wheat production in exporting countries, 
Indonesian domestic consumption, international wheat prices, real exchange rates, 
average rainfall, and average temperature. Panel data from ten major wheatexporting countries to Indonesia, covering the years 2003 to 2022, were used. The 
data that has been collected is processed using descriptive statistical analysis and 
Gravity Model analysis with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) 
approach.
The study's findings revealed that the factors influencing the volume of wheat 
imports fluctuated annually. The Gravity Model analysis with the PPML approach 
indicated that the significant factors affecting wheat import volumes were the GDP 
per capita of exporting countries, economic distance, wheat production in 
exporting countries, Indonesian domestic consumption, international wheat prices, 
and the average temperature of exporting countries. In contrast, variables such as 
Indonesia's GDP per capita, the real exchange rate of the rupiah against the dollar, 
and the average rainfall in exporting countries did not significantly impact the 
volume of Indonesian wheat import.

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